General NFL discussion thread

[Spigs]

We have the fantasy thread and Tiki made a thread for one game this week so I figured why not just make a catch all NFL discussion thread for all us football fans on the forum.

Week 13 Standings

AFC East                           AFC South                 AFC North                AFC West
Patriots 10-2               Jacksonville 7-5             Pittsburgh 9-3            Kansas City 8-4      
New York 9-3               Indianapolis 6-6             Baltimore 8-4              San Diego 6-6
Miami 6-6                    Houston 6-6                 Cleveland 5-7             Oakland 6-6
Buffalo 2-10                Tenessee 5-7                Cincinnati 2-10           Denver 3-9

NFC East                            NFC South                NFC North                NFC West
Philadelphia 8-4             Atlanta 10-2                 Chicago 9-3               St. Louis 6-6      
New York 8-4                New Orleans 9-3            Green Bay 8-4            Seattle 6-6
Washington 5-7             Tampa 7-5                   Minnesota 5-7            San Francisco 4-8
Dallas 4-8                     Carolina 1-11                Detroit 2-10               Arizona 3-9


This has been one of the best seasons of football I have ever watched with great play across the league (except of course the NFC West but the less said about them the better)  This is shaping up to be a season where 10 wins may not be enough for a team to make the playoffs.

So I open up the floor for discussion, lets talk some football

[JimN]

Good idea!

This is becoming the season of the interim coach. Denver fired Josh McDaniels.

Jim

[Wood]

I agree and not only has it been a great season, but the schedule makers were kissed by the gods this year too, as many of the key playoff races will be settled on the field in the final month. As an Eagles fan, I really think we need to win the division and that either the Giants or the Eagles could be 11-5 and miss out depending. It's going to be awesome to behold.

This week for a Footballguys column we do, The Roundtable, the moderator asked a few of us to make our playoff predictions. Here is what I submitted (it hasn't been published yet).

AFC East
I'm saying New England holds serve this week and goes up 10-2, allowing them to cruise to a 1st round bye and top seed. The Jets probably finish a game behind with 12+ wins but have the inequity of being the 5th seed and heading on the road for a first round game.

AFC North
The Steelers win at Baltimore last night was enormous. To me it comes down to the fact Pittsburgh has three home games left, before ending the season @Cleveland. Meanwhile Baltimore has three straight road games before ending the season at home versus Cincinnati. Both PIT and BAL have one hard game left -- New Orleans and the Jets, respectively -- so Baltimore, by way of not having the tiebreakers, is going to have to realistically go 3-1 or 4-0 to win the division; a tall task when only one of them is at home.

AFC South
Who knows? My instincts say Indianapolis will find a way to get it done, but Jacksonville just keeps winning games. Jacksonville and Indy play again (@Indy) in two weeks, and that could set the tone. I expect the Colts to win versus Tennessee in Week 14, and they get the lowly Titans again in Week 17. The game @Oakland, which I would've assumed was an easy win, now looks like the difference between Indy winning another division crown and missing the playoffs.

AFC West
The Chiefs are going to take this. I am impressed with the Chiefs, because they're winning games in so many different ways. Bowe goes catchless, and they find a way to win 10-6 on a late TD throw to Leonard Pope? Wow. I don't know that I would bet on KC doing much in the playoffs, but I think they're battle tested enough and have enough cushion to hold on for the division crown. The key to my prediction comes this week, as the Chiefs head to San Diego. If San Diego wins that game, then it's more interesting because San Diego would be 7-6 and have games against the 49ers, Bengals and Broncos left. Even still, KC would be 8-5 and have games against St. Louis, Tennessee and Oakland. Ultimately I think KC wins the division by at least two games.

NFC East
I'm going to put my homer glasses on and say the Eagles take this one. But I say that understanding that Philly still has two games against a Dallas team that's 3-1 under Jason Garrett, including a road victory against Indy. And of course Philly and New York still have an epic Week 15 matchup. But the fact is Andy Reid's teams have the best record in December of anyone in the last decade not named the Patriots, while the Giants often wilt in December. Maybe this year is different, but I'm not betting on that until it happens.

NFC North
The Bears keep on winning. And I keep on doubting. I know they handled my Eagles two weeks ago and won ugly against Detroit to move to 9-3. But their last month is KILLER -- New England, @Minnesota, New York Jets, @Green Bay. I could easily see Chicago finish 1-3 down the stretch and I don't know that 10-6 is enough to win the division or make the playoffs. Now to be fair Green Bay doesn't have an easy road either. @Detroit but then followed by @New England, vs. New York Giants and then at home versus Chicago. Ultimately it seems the division probably gets settled on the final week; which is AWESOME as a football fan.

NFC South
Atlanta is 10-2 and gets Carolina twice and the Seahawks over the final month. Saints fans will point to the Week 16 matchup and argue that will decide the division, but I think Atlanta ends the season 13-3 even if New Orleans beats them in Week 16. I think it's too much to ask of the Saints to go 4-0 down the stretch when they face Baltimore, the Rams, the Falcons and Tampa Bay.

NFC West
For all of our sakes let's hope it's the Rams. St. Louis is at least 6-6 and their winning the division in Sam Bradford's rookie season would be a great storyline. Even a first round exit would be deemed an ENORMOUS achievement by the Rams, and would set the table for loftier goals in 2011. The Rams have tough matchups these next two weeks against the Saints and the Chiefs, but pretty much control their own destiny with games against SF and the Seahawks in the final two weeks.

[Wood]

Good idea!

This is becoming the season of the interim coach. Denver fired Josh McDaniels.

Jim

Indeed. And it's very puzzling given the backdrop of a likely lock out next year. Many thought owners would be more cautious with their personnel decisions because the lock out would foster uncertainty in terms of being able to hire as well as budgets. A lot of these coaches being canned are going to be collecting millions next year from owners while they chill during a work stoppage.

Either way, it also shows how much the NFL has changed into a win now league. It used to be unheard of for a coach to be let go without three or four seasons to build something, unless they were just abysmal and clearly incompetent. Now owners see other franchises go from worst to the playoffs and wonder, "why not us?"

The fact the Vikings and Cowboys are a combined 5-1 since taking over is also fueling that fire, I'm sure.

I don't think we'll see any more coaching cuts this year, although I do think quite a few owners will be jockeying for position this offseason. The lock out is a big X factor though because I know folks like Gruden and Cowher are a) not done coaching, b ) well compensated and happy as TV people, and c) won't come back to a team they don't think can win consistently. Yet, many owners will be willing to throw their coaches out on their asses for a shot at the big time.

Here are coaches I think are either likely to be fired, or could be on the hot seat IF one of the marquee alternatives lets it be known they would consider the gig:

Dead Men Walking

• Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati [ownership wouldn't make a change if he wasn't done his contract, but now it's a no brainer]
• Eric Studesville, Denver [not even a 4-0 finish is going to keep Bowlen from bringing in someone else and cleaning house]
• John Fox, Carolina [he'll be highly sought after as either a head coach or defensive coordinator in 2011]
• Mike Singletary, San Francisco [only ownership being cheap would keep him in place, he's likely gone

Safe but a lot left to prove

• Chan Gailey, Buffalo [first year, cheap owner = he's got at least another year]
• Eric Mangini, Cleveland [I've actually been impressed with Cleveland this year. If they had better personnel, this could be a playoff contender. Unless Gruden or another Holmgren acolyte want in, Eric stays]
• Gary Kubiak, Houston [Ownership is tired of 7-9, 8-8 seasons but Kubes just got a big extension last year, so barring a total collapse in the last month, he's staying]
• Norv Turner, San Diego [ownership known for rash moves, and if San Diego doesn't make a push this last month, i wouldn't be shocked to see him go]
• Leslie Frazier, Minnesota [I think Ziggy will keep Frazier onboard as long as he keeps balanced over the final month]
• Jason Garrett, Dallas [Jones would dump Garrett in two seconds for Cowher or perhaps Gruden, but I don't think either will consider the 'Boys, and that'll be enough to keep Garrett on board]

[Dave A]

Other than my Redskins sucking butt yet again this year, it's been a fun race to watch. I can't wait for the playoffs!

Great analysis there, Wood... nothing left for me to add. 

[Thermite (Iz Wilkison)]

Denver fired Josh McDaniels.

There was definitely a "when is it gonna happen" feeling here in Denver the past few weeks.

[Spigs]

I really think the taping issue hurt McDaniels as well, the record was a killer and certainly had him on his way out the door but that was the final push.  He embarrassed the franchise with a bad decision to protect a friend and that was the final straw.

Wood, I find it interesting that you've got Indy pulling out the wins to make the playoffs this season.  Manning is revealing himself to be a mediocre quarterback when you take away all of his top receivers, and he is and always has been the center of the team.  Watching him lately I see a mentally broken player who doesn't have a run left in him.

[Dave A]

Wood, I find it interesting that you've got Indy pulling out the wins to make the playoffs this season.  Manning is revealing himself to be a mediocre quarterback when you take away all of his top receivers, and he is and always has been the center of the team.  Watching him lately I see a mentally broken player who doesn't have a run left in him.

I'm far from being a Manning fan, but... mediocre? 

Any QB would look bad if he had no running game to back him up, his receivers dropped catchable balls on key plays, and his receivers weren't able to get into proper position to make a play on the pass against the defender. Just like Manning has gotten too much of the credit for the Colts' past successes, I think he's taking too much of the heat for their lackluster season this year. They're basically asking Manning to both run and feed the entire offense, and the Colts are still in the playoff hunt. That's hardly mediocre.

I do think the curse of the Superbowl loser is going to get them, though... I'm calling Jacksonville to take the division (they've got at least one win coming up versus my craptastic Redskins.  )  Jets and Ravens to take the wild card spots.

[Spigs]

Mediocre might be a bit of an exaggeration on my part, I'm one of those fans who can't stand the media adoration Peyton has gotten over the years despite his history of chocking in the big game prior to 2006.  I have always viewed him as a player who has benefited hugely from the talent around him and the systems he has played in and who has a bad habit of collapsing when things get tough.  Also his complete lack of physicality, if Manning got hit like Rothelisberger did Sunday night there's no way he comes back and plays that effectively.  Manning doesn't like contact, can't play well under the big game pressures and ultimately I don't think he should be in the elite quarterback discussion.  His stats can't be questioned but I'll take clutch in the playoffs over big regular season stats eight days a week.

[JimN]

Wood, I find it interesting that you've got Indy pulling out the wins to make the playoffs this season.  Manning is revealing himself to be a mediocre quarterback when you take away all of his top receivers, and he is and always has been the center of the team.  Watching him lately I see a mentally broken player who doesn't have a run left in him.

Honestly, I think Manning proved a long time ago that he's a lot better than mediocre. Personally, I think what's going on in Indy is a classic example of what happens when a team gets too far out of balance and a QB is asked to do too much. There's a reason defenses try to make offenses one-dimensional. They're easier to defend. In the past 3 games, Indianapolis has attempted 40 running plays. Over that same span, Manning has attempted 148 passes! That's ridiculous and it's the kind of imbalance that will usually lead to turnovers, especially if a QB and his receivers aren't always on the same page.

I've always felt a team that asks their QB to throw 50 passes in a game might as well count on at least two of those passes being interceptions. It won't always work out that way but NFL defenses are too good to get away with an approach that imbalanced for long.

Jim

[JimN]

Indeed. And it's very puzzling given the backdrop of a likely lock out next year.

It makes you wonder if that lockout is really as likely as the media has led us to believe.

Many thought owners would be more cautious with their personnel decisions because the lock out would foster uncertainty in terms of being able to hire as well as budgets. A lot of these coaches being canned are going to be collecting millions next year from owners while they chill during a work stoppage.

As I hinted above, I think it's a sign the owners may not believe there will be a work stoppage. I'm betting we see an 11th hour deal and NFL action in 2011.

Jim

[Wood]

It makes you wonder if that lockout is really as likely as the media has led us to believe.

As I hinted above, I think it's a sign the owners may not believe there will be a work stoppage. I'm betting we see an 11th hour deal and NFL action in 2011.

Jim

The owners are very much planning for a lock out, FWIW. But as a fan I hope the union caves, although I doubt it this time because of the unproven relationship between D Smith and Goodell.

[Dave A]

Mediocre might be a bit of an exaggeration on my part, I'm one of those fans who can't stand the media adoration Peyton has gotten over the years despite his history of chocking in the big game prior to 2006.  I have always viewed him as a player who has benefited hugely from the talent around him and the systems he has played in and who has a bad habit of collapsing when things get tough.  Also his complete lack of physicality, if Manning got hit like Rothelisberger did Sunday night there's no way he comes back and plays that effectively.  Manning doesn't like contact, can't play well under the big game pressures and ultimately I don't think he should be in the elite quarterback discussion.  His stats can't be questioned but I'll take clutch in the playoffs over big regular season stats eight days a week.

I'd agree with that assessment... I'm definitely not a defender for Manning. I think he's a big whiny-ass.

On another tack... I see the Redskins suspended Albert Haynesworth without pay for the last 4 games. If we weren't sure already, now we know we've seen the last of him in a Skins jersey.

[JimN]

Mediocre might be a bit of an exaggeration on my part, I'm one of those fans who can't stand the media adoration Peyton has gotten over the years despite his history of chocking in the big game prior to 2006.  I have always viewed him as a player who has benefited hugely from the talent around him and the systems he has played in and who has a bad habit of collapsing when things get tough.  Also his complete lack of physicality, if Manning got hit like Rothelisberger did Sunday night there's no way he comes back and plays that effectively.  Manning doesn't like contact, can't play well under the big game pressures and ultimately I don't think he should be in the elite quarterback discussion.  His stats can't be questioned but I'll take clutch in the playoffs over big regular season stats eight days a week.

That's one way to look at it.

I'm not a huge Manning fan but I've never agreed with the above take on him (I've heard it many times). He's obviously benefitted from the talent around him but the same can be said for any truly good, productive QB.  Ina  team sport like football, no QB achieves great things (or even great stats) without plenty of help.

Regarding the idea that Manning doesn't like contact: a QB isn't supposed to seek out contact. His job is to avoid it and stay healthy. I'll take an elite QB who can avoid contact and start for 12 straight years over a "physical" QB who continually gets injured because he doesn't get rid of the ball or insists on running with it too much. That's a no-brainer. I enjoy physical QB play (Joe Kapp is one of my all-time favorite players) but a QB is a lot more valuable to his team healthy.

Is Manning a choker? I suppose that's in the eye of the beholder. It's easy enough to talk about clutch play in the playoffs but prior to 2006, most of the playoff losses the Manning-led Colts suffered were to very good teams, at least during Manning's prime. For example, did he choke in two postseason losses to NE or did the Colts simply come up against a much better team? I think Manning has performed poorly in a few playoff games but I suspect the main reason he doesn't have a better postseason record is he's played on teams that weren't built to win in the postseason, teams with serious shortcomings on defense or with an inadequate running game to support the passing game. That kind of imbalance can be a killer against a high quality opponent.

FWIW, I think Brady's a better QB and I definitely think the media spends way too much time fawning over Manning (they always have to fawn over someone and Favre's on his way out!) but in a team sport, I think Manning has always taken too much blame for playoff losses and been given too much credit for team success. he's been a crucial part of both but he's never the only Colts player on the field.  

Jim

[Wood]

I'm really hard pressed to find the logic in any argument that calls Peyton Manning mediocre. He's unquestionably one of the best to ever play his position. Is he THE best? That's much more up for debate (I prefer Brady among his contemporaries and a handful of others that have already played their careers out), but there is nothing mediocre about what he's accomplished, both statistically, in terms of his teams wins/losses, awards, or the respect his peers have for him.

[Spigs]

Again, mediocre was an exaggeration on my part and for what it's worth I retract that particular word.  JimN I agree that a quarterback shouldn't seek contact, and that you definitely don't want a quarterback to be risking his body when he doesn't need to, look at Mike Vick, in the long run I don't think he will be able to maintain a long career if he keeps taking a beating.  That having been said I also don't want a quarterback who is afraid to get hit and who can't stand in the pocket, make the throw and take the hit.  Looking at Manning's recent stretch of interceptions his scrambling and avoiding the hit has largely contributed to his lack of accuracy and some of these picks.

For what it's worth I would take Manning over a number of other QB's in the league, but I think this season is showing that unless he has the right cast around him he's not going to put up those record numbers.  To contrast that with Brady, who I think is the best QB of the last decade and one of the top players of all time, he has always had a cast of nobodies around him and made it work, that to me is the sign of a great QB, you can plug him in with just about anyone around him and he will excel. (In the interest of full disclosure I am a lifelong Pats fan)

[Wood]

Again, mediocre was an exaggeration on my part and for what it's worth I retract that particular word.  JimN I agree that a quarterback shouldn't seek contact, and that you definitely don't want a quarterback to be risking his body when he doesn't need to, look at Mike Vick, in the long run I don't think he will be able to maintain a long career if he keeps taking a beating.  That having been said I also don't want a quarterback who is afraid to get hit and who can't stand in the pocket, make the throw and take the hit.  Looking at Manning's recent stretch of interceptions his scrambling and avoiding the hit has largely contributed to his lack of accuracy and some of these picks.

For what it's worth I would take Manning over a number of other QB's in the league, but I think this season is showing that unless he has the right cast around him he's not going to put up those record numbers.  To contrast that with Brady, who I think is the best QB of the last decade and one of the top players of all time, he has always had a cast of nobodies around him and made it work, that to me is the sign of a great QB, you can plug him in with just about anyone around him and he will excel. (In the interest of full disclosure I am a lifelong Pats fan)

Yeah...again, that doesn't make much sense. Manning has had a massive changeover in his personnel, both in terms of his skill position players and the offensive linemen that protect him. And this year, his so-called down year, he's got a 89.4 passer rating. To put that in context...12 QBs in the HISTORY OF THE NFL have career passer ratings higher than 89.4.

I may not think Manning should've ranked 8th in the NFL's 100 Greatest Players of All-Time as he did, but when you have hundreds of your peers, past and present, voting you as such, it's pretty specious to even imply the guy is anything but stellar. You want to argue Brady is better? I'm all for it (and agree with you). You want to argue Manning isn't a Top 5 all time QB? I can see that too. But you start going into the realm of "he's not as good as  people think he is" or not a lock Hall of Famer, and I have trouble maintaining the string.

[Spigs]

Ultimately this may be an agree to disagree type point, although I think we both agree Brady is better.  Is he a first ballot hall of famer? Absolutely, his numbers alone will get him in.  Is he as good as people think he is?  I don't think so, I think he has been put on a pedestal by the media and a lot of the fan base that doesn't quite match up with what he's done.  Again this is probably just an agree to disagree.  I will say when he did finally win the Superbowl I gained a whole lot more respect for him as a player.

Haynesworth being suspended is disgraceful, he's making TO look like a team player

[Swany]

Here are coaches I think are either likely to be fired, or could be on the hot seat IF one of the marquee alternatives lets it be known they would consider the gig:

Dead Men Walking

• Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati [ownership wouldn't make a change if he wasn't done his contract, but now it's a no brainer]
• Eric Studesville, Denver [not even a 4-0 finish is going to keep Bowlen from bringing in someone else and cleaning house]
• John Fox, Carolina [he'll be highly sought after as either a head coach or defensive coordinator in 2011]
• Mike Singletary, San Francisco [only ownership being cheap would keep him in place, he's likely gone

Safe but a lot left to prove

• Chan Gailey, Buffalo [first year, cheap owner = he's got at least another year]
• Eric Mangini, Cleveland [I've actually been impressed with Cleveland this year. If they had better personnel, this could be a playoff contender. Unless Gruden or another Holmgren acolyte want in, Eric stays]
• Gary Kubiak, Houston [Ownership is tired of 7-9, 8-8 seasons but Kubes just got a big extension last year, so barring a total collapse in the last month, he's staying]
• Norv Turner, San Diego [ownership known for rash moves, and if San Diego doesn't make a push this last month, i wouldn't be shocked to see him go]
• Leslie Frazier, Minnesota [I think Ziggy will keep Frazier onboard as long as he keeps balanced over the final month]
• Jason Garrett, Dallas [Jones would dump Garrett in two seconds for Cowher or perhaps Gruden, but I don't think either will consider the 'Boys, and that'll be enough to keep Garrett on board]

I gotta add Jeff Fischer to the deadman walking list, Bud Adams loves texas Qb's and loves Vince Young and we all know Fischer has no time for VY so i say bye bye Jeff after a disastrous season as i predict they end up at the bottom of the AFC South.

I also think you can then throw Fischer into the Gruden/Cowher grouping of coaches who have enough jam to get Garrett dumped in the big D.

[JimN]

Again, mediocre was an exaggeration on my part and for what it's worth I retract that particular word.  JimN I agree that a quarterback shouldn't seek contact, and that you definitely don't want a quarterback to be risking his body when he doesn't need to, look at Mike Vick, in the long run I don't think he will be able to maintain a long career if he keeps taking a beating.  That having been said I also don't want a quarterback who is afraid to get hit and who can't stand in the pocket, make the throw and take the hit. 

I'm with you on that and I have seen Manning make some careless throws in an effort to avoid contact, so I understand your point.

For what it's worth I would take Manning over a number of other QB's in the league, but I think this season is showing that unless he has the right cast around him he's not going to put up those record numbers. 

Honestly, I think that's true of any QB. They can only truly excel if there are good players around them.

To contrast that with Brady, who I think is the best QB of the last decade and one of the top players of all time, he has always had a cast of nobodies around him and made it work, that to me is the sign of a great QB...

I mean no offense by this but to me, a statement like that seems like an indication of just how much perception has varied when it comes to those two QBs, and how much it can stray from reality. I agree that Brady's the best QB of the past decade but Randy Moss was hardly a nobody and while Brady may not have had the chance to establish a connection with a WR like Marvin Harrison for a significant portion of his career, between Moss, Welker, Branch, Brown, Dillon, Antowain Smith, Kevin Faulk, Daniel Graham, etc. he's had plenty of quality weapons around him, not to mention some excellent o-lines. He hasn't been playing with a cast of nobodies.

...you can plug him in with just about anyone around him and he will excel. (In the interest of full disclosure I am a lifelong Pats fan)

Then you know what I mean about those weapons.

My full disclosure: I'm a lifelong Vikings fan so I have no vested interest in Manning or Brady. I can resent the success of both QBs!
Jim