General NFL discussion thread

[Nojfotra (Jonathan D. Gordon)]

The Wife is looking to steal Jahvid Busts spot this year so the lions can have some kinda running game.

[valance_the_hunter]

Niners get another Wide out?     First they drop Josh Morgan to the Redskins on the cheap (who I thought was pretty damn good), then they acquire Moss, then Manningham, and now, Jenkins.   

Crabtree better get his shit together.

[Jeff B.]

Wooohooo, I love the draft   

I was blown away at the pace of the draft last night and also appreciated ESPN for not having 17 talking heads on the set.  I felt like last year they had like 5 or 6 guys if I am not mistaken and it was much simpler with just the 3 guys.  But man, did it go by quick, and the rookie wage scale clearly made a huge impact right away with teams actually interested in acquiring top picks and moving up to get the guys they wanted.

I was surprised at a couple of picks - the Poe pick screams bust, I heard the other day he had only 1 sack in Conference USA play last season, that just boggles my mind that his combine numbers propped him up that much.  Also, San Fran going after another WR was interesting. 

The Giants had the last pick in the first round for some reason...oh that's right they won the Super Bowl    and I was surprised to see them go after a RB after Martin was taken right before them.  Coughlin in his post draft interview spoke highly about him and they seem enamored with his speed.  They said he was the highest rated guy on the board for them so I guess you can expect that from them.  But for me I was hoping with the loss of Jacobs maybe Da'Rel Scott could get some more playing time, he has explosiveness as well and the Giants could strengthen some other positions like LB and OL.  Looking forward to who they take tonight.  There seem to still be some quality OL out there.

[thefreakytiki]

Very Satisfied with the Bengals 1st round. Addressed from very glaring needs and loved that they picked up that extra 3rd rounder from the Pats. If they can pick up Isaiah Pead in the 2nd or 3rd I will be one happy boy.

I really think that the Bengals draft moves had a SPECIFIC effect of the Steelers', Patriots' and Ravens' draft day.

- Since they passed on Decastro, the Steelers passed on Hightower to grab Decastro.

- Since Hightower was expected to be picked up by the Steelers but wasn't, the Patriots knew that the Ravens were eyeballing him.  Because of this they had to act quickly and hence, uncharacteristically traded up to get him (also traded with the Bengals).

- With Hightower off the board, the Ravens chose to trade away their 1st round spot.

Dominoes my friend, dominoes.



the Tiki

[Benestro]

I know it's gonna be along road back to relevancy but I am really excited about the direction of the Colts. I love what they have done so far in the draft. I think Luck will be great and adding his Stanford TE Coby Fleener was big time. Fleener has the ability to give them some of the magic other teams have found with their athletic TEs, i.e., Gronkowski, Hernandez, Finley, V. Davis.

[thefreakytiki]

Two O line guys back to back for the Steelers?  3rd round has gotta fill some defensive needs (either LB or D line).


The Tiki

[Wood]

The Eagles took the first two rounds behind the woodshed and beat the evil spirits out of 'em

 

...and then we drafted Foles 

[valance_the_hunter]

The Niners seem to be really focused on loading the deck with wide outs, now it seems they are doing the same with running backs.

Baffling.

[elemental]

Really like what the Bucs did yesterday in getting Lavonte David late in round two, Dont think either the move for Doug Martin or Lavonte David happen if they dont move back in the first. Makes me feel a little better about the Barron selection. 2 or maybe 3 day one starters drafted in the first 3 rounds.

Now if we could just get some help at corner.

[Wood]

The Niners seem to be really focused on loading the deck with wide outs, now it seems they are doing the same with running backs.

Baffling.

Agreed. James is a water bug and will never be a full time runner in the NFL, but you already have one of those in Kendall Hunter -- who is actually more powerful and COULD (maybe) be a full-time guy. Plus you have Gore and Jacobs holding down the majority of carries.

BUT...the 49ers defense was amazing last year, and the offense -- in spite of the winning record -- struggled to consistently produce yardage. You can't count on that kind of red zone points efficiency this year without amping up the yardage and first down production. So I can see why they're going heavy on offense in Day One.  And realistically, even if Moss works out, it's only for a year or two. Meanwhile Crabtree has been around enough to know he's never going to be THE guy, so it's important to bring in young talent in hopes of hitting on someone.

[thefreakytiki]

From what I keep reading it seems that the Steelers must have blown a Leprechaun before the draft considering the first two draft picks that fell in their lap.  Roethlisberger may actually stay upright this year. 

I can't find anything on their third round LB pick, Sean Spence other than he is "short".  I have faith in Dick LeBeau, that he sees something in the kid. 


the Tiki

[Benestro]

This morning Mel Kiper Jr. Was asked who he thought was having the best draft so far an he immediately went to talking about the Colts. They have their QB and they added 3 solid weapons to grow with him.
Of course Todd Mcshay thinks Luck has the toughest job ahead of any draft pick, but glass half full right?

[Wood]

This morning Mel Kiper Jr. Was asked who he thought was having the best draft so far an he immediately went to talking about the Colts. They have their QB and they added 3 solid weapons to grow with him.
Of course Todd Mcshay thinks Luck has the toughest job ahead of any draft pick, but glass half full right?

One of the things I've learned over the years of writing and analyzing football is that post draft value judgments are worthless. We all do it, and we all love reading them, but historically they have been horrendous predictors of real outcomes. Why? Because all we can do mentally a day after a pick is ask ourselves two things:

1) Is the pick higher or lower than where the talking heads told me he should go?
2) Is the pick filling an obvious need on our team?

The problem with that kind of analysis is many-fold:

1) Real GMs and their personnel departments have trouble accurately predicting future performance, so imagine how bad the Youtube analysts are...yet those are the "Big Boards" we all use to validate or criticize picks

2) The great personnel men will tell you time and again you DO NOT DRAFT FOR NEED at the expense of the best players available. Think about it...Aaron Rodgers came to Green Bay because he inexplicably fell into the late 1st and they couldn't believe it since he was so much higher ranked than their remaining players. But Favre was there. We know how that turned out. My hated Giants too JPP because he was the BPA, even though many criticized the pick because the Giants already had an awesome defensive line, but holes elsewhere. Three years later JPP is the most feared edge rusher in the league and a key factor in their Super Bowl. YET, in doing post draft analysis, all we can do is compare the depth chart needs to what was drafted.

3) Players aren't all going to work out. Take a look at the last five years 1st rounders and you'll be SHOCKED by how many players you don't even remember existing much less making a big impact. Yet, we all assume that players taken that high will live up to their potential. Few do.

[Benestro]

One of the things I've learned over the years of writing and analyzing football is that post draft value judgments are worthless. We all do it, and we all love reading them, but historically they have been horrendous predictors of real outcomes. Why? Because all we can do mentally a day after a pick is ask ourselves two things:

1) Is the pick higher or lower than where the talking heads told me he should go?
2) Is the pick filling an obvious need on our team?

The problem with that kind of analysis is many-fold:

1) Real GMs and their personnel departments have trouble accurately predicting future performance, so imagine how bad the Youtube analysts are...yet those are the "Big Boards" we all use to validate or criticize picks

2) The great personnel men will tell you time and again you DO NOT DRAFT FOR NEED at the expense of the best players available. Think about it...Aaron Rodgers came to Green Bay because he inexplicably fell into the late 1st and they couldn't believe it since he was so much higher ranked than their remaining players. But Favre was there. We know how that turned out. My hated Giants too JPP because he was the BPA, even though many criticized the pick because the Giants already had an awesome defensive line, but holes elsewhere. Three years later JPP is the most feared edge rusher in the league and a key factor in their Super Bowl. YET, in doing post draft analysis, all we can do is compare the depth chart needs to what was drafted.

3) Players aren't all going to work out. Take a look at the last five years 1st rounders and you'll be SHOCKED by how many players you don't even remember existing much less making a big impact. Yet, we all assume that players taken that high will live up to their potential. Few do.

For me the draft is that last little sweet nugget we get of football before baseball takes over. It is amazing when you look at NFL teams and see just how many of the major contributors were late round picks or weren't picked at all. It's equally amazing to go back and look at past drafts and see just how many players picked early never made their mark.
There are several factors that go in to players having success. I always wonder if certain guys had landed in different spots would their careers have turned out differently. David Carr is one guy that comes to mind. The poor guy got thrown to the wolves in Houston. He never had any help and turned into a tackling dummy after a while.
One of the main things I have learned is that not everyone is great right off the bat and you CANNOT call a guy a bust after a year or even 2. And even guys like Cam Newton still have to prove themselves. People get way ahead of themselves in terms of anointing a guy a superstar or stamping a guy with a bust label.
I just love it all.

[Wood]

LOL!

Redskins give up a ton to secure RGIII and then use a high 4th rounder on another QB 

[Benestro]

LOL!

Redskins give up a ton to secure RGIII and then use a high 4th rounder on another QB 

Kirk Cousins will say all the right things but you know he can't be all that thrilled with going to Washington. Who knows but it's a waste of a pick for Washington and Cousins now knows he won't be starting anytime soon.

[valance_the_hunter]

Agreed. James is a water bug and will never be a full time runner in the NFL, but you already have one of those in Kendall Hunter -- who is actually more powerful and COULD (maybe) be a full-time guy. Plus you have Gore and Jacobs holding down the majority of carries.
BUT...the 49ers defense was amazing last year, and the offense -- in spite of the winning record -- struggled to consistently produce yardage. You can't count on that kind of red zone points efficiency this year without amping up the yardage and first down production. So I can see why they're going heavy on offense in Day One.  And realistically, even if Moss works out, it's only for a year or two. Meanwhile Crabtree has been around enough to know he's never going to be THE guy, so it's important to bring in young talent in hopes of hitting on someone.

Yea, I hear what you are saying and the concept of a loaded deck does sound really good until you look at who is playing the cards (Alex Smith).  I would have looked to someone to bolster the O-line to give Alex the time to make the plays to some of the talent they have acquired.  

In any event I really shouldn't complain cause at least we don't suck anymore.

[InspectorSpacetime]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52641

[valance_the_hunter]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52641

Heh…the Niners GIF is pretty much spot on…looked like every niners fan at work.   

[Benestro]

Colts just picked Mississippi State RB Vick Ballard. SWEET!!! I hope he makes the team.