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Author Topic: 11 O'Clock Gridiron Fantasy League  (Read 2222 times)
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Jeff B.
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« Reply #40 on: 09:08 AM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

Dude, don't you know? It's all bait and switch. I put out my REAL projections AFTER my drafts are done.

Wink

damn  Huh?  Cheesy
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« Reply #41 on: 09:08 AM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

if you guys like fantasy football you have to check out footballguys, rate my team is just one of the many tools they have to offer, I was using their draft dominator software and some vbd cheatsheets last night during the draft and I think it helps keeping everything straight.

here is my rate the team write up, please bear in mind this is from a footballguys staffer named Jason Wood so take it for what its worth  Tongue


QB: Ben Roethlisberger, David Garrard
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, Willie Parker, Cedric Benson
WR: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, Josh Morgan, Chris Henry
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Dustin Keller
PK: John Kasay
TD: San Diego Chargers


Overview:


In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year guys like Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco likely went undrafted. Even Kurt Warner wasn't drafted in early leagues.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include LaDainian Tomlinson, Randy Moss, Chad Ochocinco, Josh Morgan, Steve Smith, Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, DeSean Jackson, David Garrard, Chris Henry, and the Chargers defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 10 of 2006:

LaDainian Tomlinson vs. CIN: 158 combined yards, 4 TD
Chad Ochocinco vs. SD: 260 receiving yards, 2 TD
Willie Parker vs. NO: 225 combined yards, 2 TD
Steve Smith vs. TB: 149 receiving yards, 1 TD


QB Summary:

We have Ben Roethlisberger rated #13 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. But #14-rated QB David Garrard provides you with another viable option. So while the position doesn't figure to be a strength, with shrewd management and a little luck you might end up with decent production at QB

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule , though their playoff schedule isn't so great. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
TEN | ARI | CIN | TEN | DET | CLE | MIN | TEN | DEN | CIN | KC | BAL | HOU | CLE | GB | NE


RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LaDainian Tomlinson ranked at #1 and Darren McFadden ranked at #15.

Your bench also looks good. Ray Rice should serve as a very solid third running back. Willie Parker should also be solidly above average at RB4.

Cedric Benson is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.


WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 6.8 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Randy Moss is our #2 ranked receiver, Steve Smith is #11, and we have Chad Ochocinco 12th.

Your bench also looks good. DeSean Jackson looks great as a fourth receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Likewise, Steve Smith should be excellent at WR5. Josh Morgan looks great as a sixth receiver.

Chris Henry is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.


TE Summary:

We like the choice of Tony Gonzalez to start at tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 1.1 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Dustin Keller is a nice backup.


Kicker Summary:

We don't think John Kasay is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.


Defense Summary:

The Chargers are our #5 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.

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zack kruse
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« Reply #42 on: 11:08 AM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

oh no! How did I miss this!?!
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« Reply #43 on: 11:08 AM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

oh no! How did I miss this!?!

I have no idea, but we would've loved to have you aboard. We did a 10-teamer but would've ideally done a 12-teamer.

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« Reply #44 on: 11:08 AM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

Who said Favre wasn't coming back?  Thinking
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« Reply #45 on: 12:08 PM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

I have no idea, but we would've loved to have you aboard. We did a 10-teamer but would've ideally done a 12-teamer.



I'm totally bummed.  Cry I've got remember to keep an eye out for these things. There's always next season I guess.
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« Reply #46 on: 12:08 PM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

Who said Favre wasn't coming back?  Thinking

This whole thing is just goofy. My dad and brother are life long Packer fans, and Favre fans too, and when I broke the news to them this morning they both just sighed and shook their head.

What are ya gonna do Whaaaat
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« Reply #47 on: 02:08 PM | Tuesday, August 18, 2009 »

We have an awesome application that allows you to rate your team after a draft (appropriately called RATE MY TEAM).




Karma for that.

I ran my team, that is one cool tool. Seriously, major props to whomever put that badboy together.
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« Reply #48 on: 12:08 AM | Wednesday, August 19, 2009 »

Karma for that.

I ran my team, that is one cool tool. Seriously, major props to whomever put that badboy together.

Thanks, we certainly are proud of it.

To that end, I would LOVE it if y'all spread the word on Rate My Team. It's one of our viral marketing tools this year. Please send it along to anyone you know who does fantasy football.
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« Reply #49 on: 12:08 AM | Wednesday, August 19, 2009 »

To that end, I would LOVE it if y'all spread the word on Rate My Team. It's one of our viral marketing tools this year. Please send it along to anyone you know who does fantasy football.


I'm sure my group would like it. 
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« Reply #50 on: 02:08 PM | Wednesday, August 19, 2009 »

To that end, I would LOVE it if y'all spread the word on Rate My Team. It's one of our viral marketing tools this year. Please send it along to anyone you know who does fantasy football.


Done!  Thumbs Up
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« Reply #51 on: 03:08 PM | Wednesday, August 19, 2009 »



Thank for running that for me Wood, that is a bad ass program you guys have going. I have sent out a few dozen emails to friends in my other 2 leauges they are loving and subscribing to the site already PROPS   Not Worthy

and I have a 85 percent chance alright !!! I can work with that
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« Reply #52 on: 04:08 PM | Wednesday, August 19, 2009 »

Karma fellas for spreading the RMT love
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« Reply #53 on: 04:08 PM | Monday, August 24, 2009 »

Sweet Sweet Fantasy Football season please hurry and get here  Angry

I had a draft last night with my friends and I am so ready to GOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

O and Big Spoon whoever you are on this forum LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE !!!!!!
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« Reply #54 on: 02:08 AM | Monday, August 31, 2009 »

Did my draft tonight, and I plugged everything into the "Rate my Team" tool.  That thing's awesome.  Runs fast, too.  Anyway, so happens that Wood likes my team the best, slightly higher than David Dodds:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub
RB: Matt Forte, Marion Barber, LenDale White, Edgerrin James, Laurence Maroney, Brandon Jackson
WR: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, Kevin Walter, Chris Henry, Patrick Crayton, Hakeem Nicks
TE: Owen Daniels
PK: Rob Bironas, Kris Brown
TD: Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins

Overview:

This team is built around strong quarterback play. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be in the mix.

Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervious and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2009's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.

Players we particularly like on this team include Dwayne Bowe and Kris Brown. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

    * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
    * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
    * With average inseason management, we think you have a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 4 of 2008:
Greg Jennings vs. TB: 109 receiving yards, 2 TD
Kevin Walter vs. JAX: 76 receiving yards, 2 TD
Matt Schaub vs. JAX: 307 passing yards, 3 TD
Edgerrin James vs. NYJ: 66 combined yards, 2 TD

QB Summary:

We expect Aaron Rodgers to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

Matt Schaub, who we have rated as the #13 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Rodgers plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.

Incidentally, Schaub has what we project as a neutral matchup (ARI) during Rodgers's bye.

A quick note about the Rodgers/Greg Jennings hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

RB Summary:

Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Marion Barber as a second RB. Our projections have Matt Forte ranked at #8 and Barber ranked at #14.

LenDale White is a little below average as a third running back. Edgerrin James is also a fair-to-middlin' fourth running back.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as four players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Laurence Maroney the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by Jason Wood's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Matt Forte as high as #4, which would make him an above average first running back. Sigmund Bloom's take: "He was amazingly consistent for an RB stuck in a sputtering offense, no games below 7.5 points, and only two below 10. Any hit his touches take because the team has a stronger passing game will be balanced out by the likelihood of more TDs in a more efficient offense. "

LenDale White is ranked #33 by some of our writers. Mark Wimer reasons, "White appears to have recommitted to his craft this offseason, arriving to OTAs in outstanding shape and showing a lot of desire to excel during 2009. He punched in the ridiculous sum of 15 TDs last season, but even though he's shed 23 pounds (to 238 lbs) he looks like the probable short-yardage option for the Titans again during 2009. That could equal double-digit TDs again this year, and if the weight loss helps his quickness White could do more with each carry he earns. He'll split time with Chris Johnson, but on this very run-oriented offense that should still ensure over 200 carries and lots of scoring opportunities for White. He'll be a borderline RB2 for his fantasy owners this year, and a dynamite selection at RB3/Flex RB in my opinion. "

WR Summary:

Depth is a serious concern, but we do like your starting group, particularly Dwayne Bowe as a second receiver. Greg Jennings is our sixth ranked WR, Bowe is #8, and we have Kevin Walter 32nd.

Chris Henry is a little below average as a fourth receiver. Patrick Crayton is also a liability at fifth receiver. Hakeem Nicks is a very weak sixth receiver.

As we mentioned earlier, the QB/receiver hookup tends to make your team a little more inconsistent. But that's not the case with the Walter/Owen Daniels pair you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more consistent if anything. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by Jason Wood's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Chris Henry ranked as high as 27th, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. David Dodds defends his high ranking as follows: "Carson Palmer has had glowing remarks for Chris Henry this offseason. Right now he is being drafted way below the radar, but at worst Henry should be a great redzone target in 2009. It's possible he challenges newcomer Laveranues Coles as the starter opposite of Ocho Cinco."

Some of our staffers have Patrick Crayton as high as #39, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. Mark Wimer's take: "Crayton is one of the players who figures to benefit from the departure of Terrell Owens to Buffalo. Tony Romo hasn't forgotten how to play QB, and the team has an all-world TE in Jason Witten to worry opposing defenses. Assuming that Roy Williams' progress in the Dallas offense is as impressive as the team is hinting this offseason, Crayton should be able to find room to roam early and often during 2009. He's the favorite to win a starting WR job in Dallas, in my opinion, and when your QB routinely throws 30-40 balls per contest (as Romo does), a starting WR in that offense figures to haul in a consistent stream of balls week in and week out. "

Some of our staffers have Hakeem Nicks as high as #36, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. Jeff Tefertiller's take: "Nicks has all of the tools to produce right away. He gives the Giants a sure-handed playmaker that they have missed since the departure of Plaxico Burress. Nicks should start early on and be a good depth WR with plenty of upside this season and a future star in the league. His performance against West Virginia in the bowl game was amazing. I expect him to have a big impact early on."

TE Summary:

Owen Daniels should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fifth overall at the position. Given your league rules and the presence of Daniels, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:

Rob Bironas, our fourth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

Defense Summary:

Between the Vikings and the Dolphins, you should get above average production here.
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« Reply #55 on: 12:08 PM | Monday, August 31, 2009 »

I have space for a few more teams in the DCBS work league if anyone is interested in managing another team shoot me a PM.

DOWNSIDE: Draft is tonight at 9:15. Sorry for the last minute notice
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« Reply #56 on: 11:10 AM | Sunday, October 11, 2009 »

I cannot believe my team is failing me like this!!!!!!

I am close to the stop in points scored each week just keep looooooosing

Well I play mr Tom Katers this week

Time for the CHINGATUMADRES to get off of the floor  Rock Horns Rock Horns Rock Horns Rock Horns
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« Reply #57 on: 01:10 PM | Sunday, October 11, 2009 »

Can one of the participants post the league standing one of these days?  Just curious.

I've got a tough road ahead of me today.  I'm playing the guy I'm tied for second with, and I have Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Matt Forte on byes. 
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« Reply #58 on: 01:10 PM | Sunday, October 11, 2009 »

Can one of the participants post the league standing one of these days?  Just curious.


Certainly.

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« Reply #59 on: 01:10 PM | Sunday, October 11, 2009 »

Thanks!  Looks like you've been getting a little lucky there, Dan....  Wink

Here's a very strange coincidence:  There's a team in my league called "Lick Deze Nuts" and they are also 4 and 0.
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